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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Delaware St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:351.0
Current RPI:351
Expected SOS:340
Current SOS:340
Current Record:2-28
Expected Record:2-28
Current Conf Record:2-15
Expected Conf Record:2-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-21
Current OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC Record:0-13
Expected OOC RPI:348
Expected OOC SOS:228



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
2-28351.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Delaware St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13DePaul (186.0)BEA81-57L0%0.0
11-15Fort Wayne (209.0)SumA85-71L0%0.0
11-16Illinois Chicago (236.0)HorzA95-55L0%0.0
11-20East Tennessee St. (93.0)SCA81-57L0%0.0
11-27Troy (194.0)SBA95-64L0%0.0
11-29Binghamton (320.0)AEH64-85L0%0.0
12-2East Carolina (274.0)AmerA63-57L0%0.0
12-6UMBC (111.0)AEH60-81L0%0.0
12-9Duquesne (259.0)A10A97-48L0%0.0
12-17Delaware (233.0)CAAH59-68L0%0.0
12-19Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCA74-68L0%0.0
12-22Nebraska (56.0)B10A85-68L0%0.0
12-27Penn (112.0)IvyA105-52L0%0.0
1-3North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACH62-65L0%0.0
1-6South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH60-63L0%0.0
1-8North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACH66-76L0%0.0
1-12Hampton (237.0)MEACA78-56L0%0.0
1-15Florida A&M (332.0)MEACA94-89L0%0.0
1-20Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH78-85L0%0.0
1-22Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA61-47L0%0.0
1-27Savannah St. (197.0)MEACH86-106L0%0.0
2-3North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACA72-61L0%0.0
2-5North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACA54-51L0%0.0
2-12Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACA93-58L0%0.0
2-17Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH63-66L0%0.0
2-19Coppin St. (343.0)MEACH69-51W100%0.0
2-24Howard (339.0)MEACA93-74L0%0.0
2-26Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACA59-47L0%0.0
3-1Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH87-80W100%0.0
3-5North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACN62-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Delaware St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Delaware St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Delaware St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Delaware St.MEAC26.1326.134.694.69-23.68-23.68
North Carolina A&TMEAC5.605.6051.7251.720.190.19
North Carolina CentralMEAC4.034.0348.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Morgan St.MEAC3.983.9835.7135.71-1.14-1.14
Florida A&MMEAC3.903.9019.3519.35-2.39-2.39
HamptonMEAC2.392.3950.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC2.382.3823.3323.33-1.27-1.27
Coppin St.MEAC2.342.3416.1316.13-1.59-1.59
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.342.3413.7913.79-1.69-1.69
Savannah St.MEAC2.312.3141.3841.38-0.40-0.40
Norfolk St.MEAC2.312.3141.3841.38-0.40-0.40
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.282.2851.7251.720.080.08
South Carolina St.MEAC2.262.2624.1424.14-1.17-1.17
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.801.8048.2848.28-0.06-0.06
DuquesneA101.801.8048.3948.39-0.06-0.06
BinghamtonAE1.781.7828.5728.57-0.76-0.76
East CarolinaAmer1.771.7731.0331.03-0.67-0.67
East Tennessee St.SC1.751.7570.9770.970.730.73
UMBCAE1.751.7566.6766.670.580.58
Fort WayneSum1.721.7248.1548.15-0.06-0.06
TroySB1.721.7243.3343.33-0.23-0.23
DePaulBE1.691.6933.3333.33-0.56-0.56
PennIvy1.691.6973.3373.330.790.79
PittsburghACC1.691.6922.5822.58-0.93-0.93
DelawareCAA1.671.6736.6736.67-0.44-0.44
NebraskaB101.671.6767.7467.740.590.59
GeorgetownBE0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.170.1731.2531.25-0.06-0.06
George MasonA100.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
CornellIvy0.140.1440.7440.74-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
IllinoisB100.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
AlbanyAE0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
MaineAE0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
New HampshireAE0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
KentuckySEC0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
StetsonASun0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1132.3532.35-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
West VirginiaB120.110.1170.5970.590.040.04
CreightonBE0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.110.1184.8584.850.070.07
Green BayHorz0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
RutgersB100.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
SouthernSWAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
LamarSlnd0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
MercerSC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Miami FLACC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
OaklandHorz0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
MarylandB100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
HarvardIvy0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
WisconsinB100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0832.0032.00-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0680.0080.000.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
HoustonAmer0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
IUPUIHorz0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
TulaneAmer0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
BaylorB120.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
LafayettePat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01